Just a week ago the Department of Energy announced that $612 million dollars from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act are going towards three large-scale carbon capture and storage demonstration
projects. These funds, along with $386 million dollars in private funding, represent one of the most controversial investments in clean energy technology to date.
Simultaneously, the New York Times “Green” blog posed a rarely uttered question, is this the “Twilight of the Coal Era?” The story focuses on a Siemens contract to build two natural gas turbines for power plants in North Carolina. The catch is that these power turbines are being built to retrofit old coal plants. Randy H. Zwirn, president of the Siemens Power Generation Group, believes that this is in fact indicative of a larger trend, America moving away from coal fired plants. While orders for new natural gas turbines are up, Siemens has no new coal related contracts for America in the pipelines.
So the question becomes, in the face of potentially dwindling demand for coal-burning power plants, should large sums of government money for research, development, and deployment of clean energy solutions go towards carbon capture and storage? The arguments for both sides are abundant, but at the heart of the issue is that coal is one of the world’s cheapest energy sources and also one of its dirtiest.
While coal may be on the out in America, investment in CCS is still a necessary part of the United States’ energy plan. Unlike the politics which govern energy policy, the economy and environment are international issues. Today 1.6 billion people in the world don’t have access to power. When these people do get access to power it will be in the form of the cheapest and most accessible technology, which today has proven to be coal. The Finance Minister of South Africa, defending his nation’s decision to build a new coal plant with World Bank money, summed up the conundrum perfectly in an op-ed in the Washington Post:
If there were any other way to meet our power needs as quickly or as affordably as our present circumstances demand, or on the required scale, we would obviously prefer technologies — wind, solar, hydropower, nuclear — that leave little or no carbon footprint. But we do not have that luxury if we are to meet our obligations…to our own people…
For better or worse the amount of energy created by coal power in the world will only increase for the foreseeable future. China builds roughly one coal fired plant a week and will have built 550 new plants between 2004 and 2012. Even Europe seems to be increasing its use of coal power. European countries were recently reported to be constructing 50 new coal plants. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that global coal consumption will double by 2030. It may be the twilight of the coal era in America, but it is the dawn for the developing world.
Accepting this reality, it becomes imperative that potential technologies that make coal burning plants cleaner are explored. This is not to say that CCS is an ideal solution or even a reliable technology, but that we must at least fund its research, development, and deployment if we hope to meet carbon emission reduction goals and close the United States’ trade deficit. The point here is not to advocate for greater investment in CCS than is already proposed by the Waxman-Markey bill or America Powers Act, but to put an end to an essentially distracting debate. The debate shouldn’t be about whether we fund CCS or wind and solar, but how we can fund all potentially helpful technologies. To meet the gargantuan challenge of combatting climate change we will need every tool in the toolbox.
While increased funding in R&D leading to breakthroughs in low emission energy technologies is necessary, it alone will not solve our climate challenge. The international consensus is that greenhouse gas emissions (including carbon dioxide) have to be reduced by roughly 80% in the developed world and 50% worldwide by 2050 to avoid the worst effects of global warming. If we are to seriously strive for the President’s goal of an 83% reduction of CO2 in the U.S. by 2050, while also trying to achieve the same for the developing world, we are going to have to find ways to make already existing and under construction coal plants cleaner.
In an ideal world giant leaps in solar and wind power technologies could solve our climate problem, but the scale of the challenge is such that we must both make our future and past sources of energy cleaner. Nonprofit think tanks and research institutes are beginning to rally around this reality, stated concisely by the Clean Air Coalition, “there is widespread agreement that technologies for carbon capture and sequestration from coal power plants are an essential tool to mitigate global climate change …”
As a integral piece of the energy puzzle, CCS must be funded properly or it will be a waste of taxpayers’ money. Carbon capture technologies will be expensive to develop especially in the latter phases. The demonstration phase, known ominously as the technology “valley of death,” will necessitate large amounts of capital without an assurance of positive results. For this reason it is especially critical that the federal government provides funding not just in early research but all the way through deployment.
To America CCS represents more than an environmental cause but also an economic opportunity. The current recession highlights what has been a persistent problem, an American trade deficit estimated by the Department of Commerce to be $695 billion anually. The energy sector promises to be an area of major growth in the world economy. New technologies necessitate new factories which in turn means new jobs. But already America is falling behind in the race to capture the emerging clean energy market. The Breakthrough Institute’s comprehensive report on national progress in clean energy, Rising Tigers, Sleeping Giant, makes it clear that America has fallen behind China, South Korea, and Japan in the production of clean energy products as well as in the investment in future capacity, most notably in solar and wind power technologies. While America can still catch up in these highly competitive arenas with large direct government investment in R&D, education, and other innovation policies, it can move ahead now in the relatively unexplored realm of CCS.
As the U.S. begins to wean itself off coal power it will continue to have the world’s most abundant stockpile of the precious resource. Trends in coal exports point to a growing market in developing nations for American coal. From 2008 to 2009 percentage increases in coal exports were startling. Brazil increased its purchase of American coal by 23 %, India 29.9%, South Korea 61.1 %, and China imported coal from the U.S. for the first time since 2004.
This provides the U.S. with a unique opportunity to begin closing its trade deficit. But exporting coal alone would be environmentally and economically irresponsible, making it necessary for the U.S. to develop CCS capabilities to sell alongside its vast coal resources. Using trade agreements we could mandate the purchase of CCS technologies in order to gain access to cheap American coal. In essence America would be killing two birds with one stone, maintaining those jobs related to coal production while also creating high value jobs in CCS research, development, deployment, and eventually private production.
Today our nation faces daunting challenges, an environment heading towards disaster and an economy trying to pull itself out of one. Yet we have faced such challenges before. The U.S. emerged from the Great Depression to defeat one of the most powerful war machines the world had ever seen and sent the first man to the moon after watching the USSR beat us into space. To curb greenhouse emissions and revitalize our economy we will need every tool available and all hands on deck. What we need now is the same spirit of innovation, the same courage to go where no man had gone before, and the audacity to risk failure in the pursuit of progress that we have mustered so many times before.
Here are a few question about natural gas plants and carbon emissions and the environmental goal of 10% carbon emissions.
1. For additional power capacity, if we build a gas plant which emits 40% of the carbon per kwh of a coal plant, how does this get us to 10%?
2. If we replace a coal plant with a gas plant that emits only 40% of the carbon per kwh as a coal plant, how does this get us to 10%
3. If we had a coal technology that could retrofit a coal plant with double the capacity, but emit only 10% of the carbon of the coal plant, did we get to 10%?
4. What are the specifications of this technology? (hint: retrofit, compact, efficient, market competitive in 2016)
Is the problem in the U. S. that we cannot envision a world other than the European one: high fuel/carbon cost/taxes. Do we forget what we did with technology? Can we imagine a solution? Can we discipline our companies and markets (i.e. regulation) to make the technology work for our interest the environment, not just for private profit?
Arthur,
First off, all great questions. While I’m not quite sure where you got the “goal of 10% carbon emissions” figure, your questions nonetheless underscore an important point. We are not going to reduce carbon emissions 80% by 2050, a figure which has become the consensus target, through the construction of natural gas power plants or even the retrofitting of old coal plants with natural gas turbines. At the same time, we will not reach the goal purely through building new coal plants with the hopes that CCS technology will be capable of retrofitting them at a reasonable cost. My post does not advocate for coal plants in America, whether they are accompanied by CCS technology or not. Rather, my post seeks to point out that substituting coal firing power plants in America with cleaner sources of energy does not solve the threat posed by cheap and dirty coal. On an international level coal consumption will only increase, and for that reason well-developed CCS is necessary to meet greenhouse gas reduction goals.
Now to the question of whether increased investment in CCS should mean sustained investment in coal fire power plants in America. My answer for the time being is a firm no. While I am optimistic about the amazing achievements possible in the realm of CCS with the proper support, building dirty technology today hoping for clean solutions tomorrow is simply irresponsible. CCS is at least five years from being commercially deployed and has only been capable, at scale, of decreasing CO2 emissions by 1.5% at an exorbitant financial cost. The fact is, as of today, natural gas is cleaner than coal and increasingly becoming cost competitive. The Hill reports: “Natural gas releases about half of the carbon emissions as coal when burned. According to the Congressional Research Service, displacing older coal plants with nearby natural gas facilities could cut greenhouse gas emissions from the utility sector by 20 percent.” While this alone won’t solve our problems, as of right now natural gas offers the highest bang for your buck in terms of reducing greenhouse emissions. If and when CCS technology becomes more viable this will change.
What this all boils down to is the need for Americans to simultaneously view energy policy through two prisms. First, we must be realistic about the present. This means building our energy capacity in the cleanest and most cost effective manner. Second, we must be bold about our vision for the future. This means aggressively researching and developing the technologies of tomorrow while simultaneously deploying the best technologies of today. This will not be accomplished by taxing only. We need not discipline and chastise companies, but instead show them being clean is being profitable. America has shown that it will not accept a simple carbon-pricing scheme like cap and trade, now we must find a policy more line with our history of innovation and progress.